The actor and director Sidney Poitier is quoted as saying “ So much of life, it seems to me, is determined by pure randomness.” Many have struggled to come to terms with this situation, using strategies ranging from denial (“God does not play dice” – Albert Einstein), through the acceptance shown by Poitier, to analysis. Gamblers noted long ago that the random outcomes of dice and cards in fact exhibit patterns. An early example was the impecunious Renaissance mathematician Gerolamo Cardano, who generously published his findings in Liber de Ludo Aleae (Book on Games of Chance).

Probability models are formulaic representations of random phenomena and as such have wide applicability in media research. This Bite Sized White Paper explores the origins of probability modelling and its applications in media research today.